Every day India is setting a new record regarding the corona epidemic. In the past week, on average, more than 53,000 cases and around 800 deaths have been reported in India every day. As of 4 August, nearly 18 lakh cases and 39,000 deaths were reported in India. India is third in the world in the case of rising cases and fifth in the case of deaths.
However, there is also a silver lining in the growing case in India. The case death rate (CFR) in India is much lower than the most affected countries in terms of number of deaths. Apart from this, the case mortality rate of India has been declining since last month.
On Tuesday, the Ministry of Health said that India’s CFR has reached 2.1 percent. The lockdown has been relaxed in the country on June 1, since then it is the lowest level of mortality. Addressing the media, Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said, “This is a good sign that (in CFR) the decline is continuing”.
The CFR in India was 2.83 per cent at the beginning of June. It increased to 3.36 percent on 17 June, but has continued to decline since then. Earlier, a CFR of 2.1 percent was reported in India in the first week of lockdown, when there were only 918 cases and 19 deaths in the country.
The India Today Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) analyzed the CFRs of countries with more than 20,000 deaths from Corona and found that India’s CFR was the lowest among the most affected countries.
However, daily cases and deaths are increasing in India. In this sense, India’s situation is not under control. But India is doing better than France, United Kingdom, Italy and Mexico on some parameters.
The daily average cases in these countries have come down considerably, but their CFRs are high. As of August 5, France’s CFR was 15.8 percent, the UK’s 15.1 percent, Italy’s 14.2 percent and Mexico’s about 10 percent.
The methods adopted by European countries to reduce daily deaths, Brazil, America and India do not seem to be close to it from anywhere. But due to the high number of cases, the CFR of these three countries is very low. CFR in Brazil is 3.4 per cent, while in the US it is 3.3 per cent.
Dr. Giridhar R. Babu, an epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India, says that if more tests are done, CFR will decrease further if more cases are revealed.
Dr. Giridhar told India Today, “The CFR is not an entirely accurate way of estimating how much progress a country has made. Just by increasing the number of tests, the case mortality rate will decrease further. Deaths per one million population, tests per million and positive rates per million can only be measured through progress.”
Cases are increasing in India at such a rapid pace, because it has increased test numbers significantly. Including rapid antigen test and RT-PCR, India has done 21 million tests so far. This number of tests is the fourth largest number after China (9 million), America (60 million) and Russia (30 million).